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 Previous Item - Long Island Airport (North Carolina) fly-in September 29
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Florence |
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Mark MacKinnon - Sep 09,2018
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May be coming close to you, Don. Be safe.
Anyone else here in NC or SC or in the predicted landfall area?
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Don Maxwell - Sep 09,2018
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Thanks, Mark. Too soon to tell yet--but, like most others hereabouts, we're checking our stores of plastic tarps, generator gas, emergency food, and all.
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Dave Lima - Sep 09,2018
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It was heading for Bermuda but went south....it's downgraded anyway...
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Don Maxwell - Sep 09,2018
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I hope Dave is right. But here's the projected path to be printed in tomorrow morning's local paper. I'm not looking forward to the anti-clockwise wind blowing the ocean up the James River to our back door.
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FlorenceProjectedTrack
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Don Maxwell - Sep 10,2018
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Don Maxwell - Sep 10,2018
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And Windy's prediction of landfall pressures. Right now (about 10 AM Monday) the storm is in the lower right of this image. Noretter whose prediction is right, it's likely to be interesting later in the week.
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Florence-WindyForecast
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Nickens, Dan - Sep 10,2018
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Did you run the forecast out to ten days, Don? This morning Windy showed the storm moving back out to sea off the southeast coast after soaking the mid-Atlantic states, still turning and churning. Scary. Maybe. They really don't know and different models have different ideas and the weather doesn't pay any heed anyway.
Here's a funny aviation story about Florence and forecasts. Saturday morning I got a panicked call from a pilot in Seattle. He was at the airport waiting to board a flight to Florida. Breathlessly he said that CNN was reporting an unprecedented level of tropical development with the potential to wipe out his flight plans in Florida, the southeast, and perhaps the entire world on the following day. "Should I shelter in place?" he nervously asked.
First fake news, now fake weather. Well, maybe not fake, but definitely sensationalized.
But CNN was right in this case. As it turns out, staying home was his best option. The weather was typical Florida: hot, humid with afternoon storms. He melted in the balmy weather, swearing off Florida forever and leaving behind the airplane he had come to buy.
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Ken Leonard - Sep 10,2018
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Sensationalized weather has been a money maker for decades. We are on our 7th thunderstorm in 2 days here in Tampa. Each
followed by blue skies. Any one of them would have scared the crap out of folks in New Jersey where I was raised. Yawn.
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Carr, Frank - Sep 10,2018
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Ken, yup, that's been their plan: "If it bleeds, it leads".
The problem is the the public tends to get the sensationalization figured out, then the one time the forecast is correct, people suffer.
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Don Maxwell - Sep 10,2018
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"Did you run the forecast out to ten days, Don?" I did, Dan. And it was scary. Three things we don't want here, just east of the James River fall line (which is at Richmond and stops the tides): East-ish wind. Heavy rain. A hurricane that passes by more than once. If the Windy guy's projection is the winner, NC will get the worst of it around landfall time, with the worst of all along the coast north of the center of the storm, where the winds will be from the water side. We're in the white circle that Windy so kindly put in, north of the center, but with what by then will have been 4 days of east wind. Yesterday, the tide here was already the highest it's been all year--so it looks like lots of fun ahead. I'm generally optimistic, so I'm hoping that this time the pier won't wash away and the roof will stay on the house.
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Florence-3pmThursday
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Don Maxwell - Sep 10,2018
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A pilot who asks, "Should I shelter in place?" probably ought to.
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Carr, Frank - Sep 10,2018
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Sensationalized?. Why Dan you give them too much credit. A week or so ago, "Gordon" came across. Anybody recall Gordon?
Probably not. I got calls from Colorado and Arizona hoping we were OK. Ole Gordon was through in a Flash and about equal to a
SWFL daily thunderstorm, and not one of the dozens of rain gauges in our County topped off higher than one inch!
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Eric Batterman - Sep 10,2018
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Carr, Frank - Sep 10,2018
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As good as any!
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Carr, Frank - Sep 10,2018
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I once worked with a great engineer (in the 60's-70's) who claimed he did a study and found that if you always said "tomorrow's
weather will be like today's" you're probably of being correct was higher than the forecast".
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Ken Leonard - Sep 09,2018
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Downgraded?!? It's been upgraded to a hurricane and expected to become a major hurricane.
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Don Maxwell - Sep 13,2018
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It looks like NC, SC, and GA are going to take the biggest hits from Florence. The wind is still strong, and it's apparently going to park right on the coast, heading slowly southwest for a couple of days. Bad cess there.
Up hyeah in Virginia, we have 8G19 right now, and Windy.com predicts a max of 19G27 at about 8 this evening. It's low tide here right now--just past noon--and the water is about at typical high tide height. With high tide this evening at about the same time as wind max the water will probably be right high, but I hope the wave action won't be severe enough to wash the pier and river bank away. We'll know by Friday morning. No rain here yet, but the air is thick with water and the ceiling, low.
Here's the Windy.com wind view now:
And when it projects the storm turning inland early Sunday morning:
(The flag indicates wind direction and velocity at our house.)
| | Attachments:
Windy-Wind-NoonThurs
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Windy-Wind-0500Sunday
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Don Maxwell - Sep 14,2018
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How are you Carolinians getting along with Florence? Y'all okay? (I'm only kidding with that "y'all'--but because Dennis S. once sent me a redneck vocabulary test that wanted me to use certain words in sentence--words like BARD, for example. Answer: "I bard that Searey from my cousin Jimmy.")
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Bård Sørbye - Sep 16,2018
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Bard - who, me?
Hope you are ok, Don.
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Don Maxwell - Sep 16,2018
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We're fine here in central Virginia, BÃ¥rd. But the North Carolinians have been taking a bad hit. Probably South Carolinians and Georgians, too--although there's been no word from any of them here in several days. Apparently a lot of that area has lost electric power, and there's flooding all over. That includes Dennis S. and Shannon, both of whom live on a large lake north of Charlotte, NC. Their houses are well above lake level, but I imagine lots of the roads are flooded.
Here in Central Virginia, near Richmond, we never got wind more than 20G30. It's been 10G19 for the past two days, but today it began swinging from northeast to east as the storm center moved northwest toward the mountains. Next it's predicted to move northeast, toward Massachusetts. See Windy.com's predictions:
We had whitecaps all day today, but the ceiling began lifting around mid-afternoon and by evening there were a few patches of blue up there:
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3DayRain
24 HrRain
12HrRain
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Whitecaps+10G17
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Dennis Scearce - Sep 17,2018
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Dennis S checking in. All is well at our house but we haven't
been there since September 10. Meandered up to Niagra Falls
Canada through a bunch of state parks - using only state
roads. In Letchworth state park (NY) now. Headed through
Vermont, Maine after that. Back in NC around mid October.
Sounds like most of damage was east of us.
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Don Maxwell - Sep 19,2018
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Dennis, you picked the perfect time for a vacation. In east-central Virginia today the sky is blue for the first time in--what?--ten days, I think. Maybe two weeks. (Still very humid, though.)
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Wayne Nagy - Sep 18,2018
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Good news, Dennis!
Enjoy your adventure.
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Don Maxwell - Sep 20,2018
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Mom nature takes care of her own. Yesterday the river brought us this stuff from upstream:
I had planned to try dragging it all out into the current this afternoon today, after high tide. Ordinarily I'd think that irresponsible, but there was just too much to pile and burn. Fortunately, this is what it looked like this morning:
(No telling what tomorrow will bring, of course, as the river hasn't crested at Richmond yet.)
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Yesterday
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Today
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